Inside the drone revolution: How war has changed and what that means for modern armies
The use of drones in warfare has ushered in a new wave of technology on the battlefield that is disrupting the expensive equipment of yesterday. It's adapt or die, writes Srdjan Kovacevic
Reports from the Ukraine front line make clear the tactics and equipment deployed by both sides are unlike those used in any previous major conflict. What’s less obvious is the exact nature of the transformation: what’s driving it, where it’ll go next, and - crucially - what lessons we can learn.
The war in Ukraine has dramatically transformed modern warfare, and it would not be an overstatement to compare it with the major revolutionary advancements in military history.
At the heart of this transformation is a deep integration of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) which provides a step change in cost-effectiveness, intelligence gathering capabilities, precision strikes, and force multiplication, all while reducing human risk.
An army that has embraced these capabilities will have a decisive edge over one that has not, making the outcome of a clash between the two almost inevitable.
During the war in Ukraine, both Ukrainian and Russian militaries have undergone profound transformations adopting unmanned systems, fundamentally altering the nature of their military operations.
Both sides significantly changed the types of unmanned assets they deploy and the way they employ them. The paradigm has shifted from having a handful of expensive unmanned platforms operated at higher echelons of command (typically for reconnaissance or strategic strike), to deploying an overwhelming mass of attritable UAS operated at the battalion level or below, enabling persistent presence, precision effects, rapid reaction, and tactical autonomy.
The impact of this transformation on the Ukrainian battlefield is undeniable: a staggering 78% of Russian equipment losses over the last three years are attributed to drone strikes.
There are five main reasons why this transformation had such a dramatic impact.
First, given their relatively small logistical footprint, drones and other unmanned systems can be easily deployed at the fundamental tactical level – the battalion.
Second, a layered and systematic employment of small multicopters for short-range reconnaissance, combined with hand-launched fixed-wing assets for medium-range surveillance, can provide the battalion command with real-time situational awareness across the battlespace, almost like in a video game.
Third, assets such as First Person View (FPV) strike drones enable the battalion to employ a formidable volume of precision fires at ranges previously available only at a brigade or division-level.
Fourth, most of these assets are light and man-portable, allowing high mobility and dispersion – a critical quality on a transparent battlefield where precision at range is pervasive.
Fifth, and most important: unmanned assets enable the battalion commander to engage the enemy while significantly reducing the risk to the lives of the battalion’s soldiers.
Combined, this enables detecting enemy manoeuvre tens of kilometers in depth, rapidly engaging with precision fires, and sustaining this effect by maintaining a dispersed and highly fluid posture that blends into the terrain.
This has been so disruptive because the presence of such capabilities on the battlefield profoundly alters the risk calculus for deploying high-value assets such as tanks, air defense systems, artillery, or helicopters close to the front – a lesson allegedly delivered to the Colombian National Police, who tragically lost at least 12 officers in August this year, reportedly due to an FPV drone attacking their Black Hawk helicopter during an anti-narcotics raid. (As this story notes, the exact cause of the helicopter’s destruction was never confirmed, but nevertheless, drones destroying costly equipment has become a recurring theme.)
Over in Europe, Ukraine has widely integrated these new capabilities down to the lowest echelons of tactical command, but other European defense forces have yet to start adopting this capability at any meaningful scale.
If Europe were to face a Russian invasion today, we would be unprepared to confront an adversary that has thoroughly transformed its military operations through the integration of unmanned technologies.
Transforming our defense forces by implementing unmanned capabilities is therefore critical for European security.
Srdjan Kovacevich is the co-founder and CEO of Orqa, a startup based out of Croatia building first-person-view (FPV) headset technology.